Fed PAUSES Rate Hikes - MASSIVE rally coming？! Stock Market Analysis

Hello, welcome back to a new video. So

today we're going to be talking about

stocks and FOMC meeting that just happened

yesterday and what stocks I'm picking and

what I predict for the rest of this year.

So as you may know, they decided to pause

rate hikes, which was already kind of

priced into the market, but it wasn't

fully priced in until it was actually made

official. And we got a nice little rally.

As you can see, I'm looking at the SPY

chart here and these arrows indicate my

prediction. I think we have bottomed

around here, and we are going to see a

nice rally into Christmas and then a

sell-off around after Christmas into the

beginning of 2024, which will look pretty

ugly. And when you look at the weekly

chart for the SPY, you can see that

there's a lot of indications that we have

hit a bottom and had a nice rally off the

bottom. So we can see unfortunately the

overall indices is in a downward channel,

in this downward trend marked by these

yellow lines. So we are still zigzagging

down, but for now we're going to zigzag

back up to the resistance top line before

zigzagging back down. But I do feel like

it's going to be very choppy over the next

year. So for the short term, I do feel

confident in placing a long position in

the SPY or the market. And I'm thinking

about opening up a 5x leverage on the S&P

500, but not yet, because even though I

feel like we're going upwards, I feel like

there could be a retracement and a bit of

a pullback down to the 150 moving average

line. So we can see many confluences

collecting at this point. We've got a

61.8% line on the Fibonacci retracement,

which is a very strong level. And we've

also got the SPY bouncing off the 150

moving average, and we're also bouncing

off of this upwards trend line marked in

purple. So we've got this trend line, the

Fibonacci retracement line, the 150 moving

average— that's all very good signs for a

bullish movement upwards. Now I could be

wrong and all of those signs don't really

mean anything and we could go back down.

If that's the case, then we could drop all

the way down to around 380 on the SPY,

which would then probably bounce off of

the 200-day moving average and also the

38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, which

is also a very strong level for buying.

So I'm thinking I place some money into a

long on the SPY, but I do feel like there

could be a pullback, and then I'll put

more money if it does pull back when it

comes back down to a low level. And then I

think I'm ready for my position. My

position is going to be built up, ready to

go long into the end of this year, which I

do feel quite confident that we're going

to hit that upper resistance level again.

And once it does, I would probably take

80% profit and take profit there, leave a

tiny bit in case it does break this

resistance line and go for all-time new

highs. But I feel like the chances of an

all-time new high happening this year are

kind of unlikely, and we're more likely to

hit this resistance line and then bounce

right back down off it into negativity of

the beginning of next year. Historically,

the beginning of a new year is usually

kind of negative and seen with a lot of

sell-offs. And because we're going into—

well, we're already in a recession But it

doesn't really seem like the markets have

the recession really priced in yet. The

market has kind of like a lagging effect

on the economy, and what's happening in

the economy does take several months or

even half a year to actually manifest in

the markets and the charts. So we could be

seeing a lagging response by the markets

here, and the real effects of the

recession in the charts will be seen

probably in the beginning of next year

after the Santa rally. Okay. Next, let's

have a look at Tesla because I have opened

a long in Tesla. I put about £1,000 into

my Tesla position just to build it up I

want to get a total of about $2,000 to

$3,000 in my Tesla position because when

the markets start moving upwards, Tesla is

going to move upwards but much faster.

Usually Tesla outperforms the market when

it's going up by quite a lot because it's

like a very explosive stock with very

volatile movements up and down. So as you

can see, we are bouncing off this purple

upwards trend line and also bouncing off

this dark purple downwards. It used to be

a resistance line, but obviously it's

broken through this resistance line. You

can see wave down, wave up. Wave down,

wave up, wave down. Every time it got

rejected by this line, but then it had

this massive crash here and then broke

through, smashed that resistance line.

And now you can see this former resistance

line has now become a support line. So

it's bounced off it here, and now it's

bounced off here again. So we're bouncing

off the former resistance line, and we're

bouncing off this new, uh, support line.

And we've also bounced off this yellow

horizontal support line, which is a clear

buy zone. You see buying here and buying

here happened and more buying here

happened. So we can expect buying here to

happen as well. And this is my prediction:

I think we're going to bounce up here,

reject off this zone, and then bounce back

down a little bit, and then ultimately

head back up to fill this gap to make like

a cup shape. I reckon we're gonna retest

the all-time high but not break through

it, probably bounce down off it and create

a handle for like a cup and handle

pattern. There has been some negative news

involving Panasonic batteries, but I think

that's just a load of nothingness really.

And there's also some negative about the

demand for EVs going down, which I also

think is a lot of rubbish. I think more

and more people will be looking to getting

EVs as the technology becomes better and

cheaper. And Tesla is always going to be

the most premium and the highest quality

and the best kind of EV you can get in the

market. So people are going to see Teslas

as kind of like iPhones. You know,

there's a bazillion other kind of Android

phones that are cheaper, but people still

want to use an iPhone because it just

looks the best. It's the coolest looking,

even though it is the most expensive. So I

still feel like Tesla is going to be a

strong stock for many years to come and

it's going to get stronger. So this is a

good buying opportunity to buy on this bad

news, which is just basically a load of

nothing. Okay. So next, let's talk about

gold and gold stocks. This is actually my

biggest holding in my portfolio. About 60%

of my portfolio is in a gold miner called

Barrick Gold. And you can see from the

charts, it's had a massive explosive

movement upwards because of the Middle

East conflict, which is probably going to

escalate and just get worse as the months

go by. So I feel quite confident in gold

and gold mining stocks and commodities

because it's like a safe haven bet for

people when there's a lot of risk in the

markets and when there's like conflicts in

the world. People do like to go for safe

haven stocks and gold has historically

been one of the oldest and best safe haven

stocks. And you can really see it in the

charts recently. So we're bouncing off of

this support line and we've created like

this kind of wedge shape, and we're

reaching the end of the apex of this wedge

shape, which usually results in breaking

out of the wedge shape to the upside. I

saw this pattern in the S&P 500 a couple

months ago— well, actually almost a year

ago— when the SPY actually broke out of

its own wedge shape and went for that

massive bull run over the summer of this

year, or before the summer. And we can see

that formation is forming here as well.

We're probably going to ping pong in

between this and then finally break out,

and then this resistance line is going to

become the new support line. And if you go

to the daily chart, we can see there's a

very clear inverse head and shoulders

forming. So we've got the left shoulder

here, then we've got the head here, and

we've got the right shoulder forming here

where we've been on this massive run in

gold and there is some profit taking and

pullback happening. So we're going to pull

back to around maybe this level to form

the right shoulder and then eventually

rock it off. I reckon we're going to rock

it off. Like, like straight up there, and

then maybe a bit more of a pullback down

there, and then eventually lightning bolt

straight up here like this and reach back

to the highs previously and fill this gap,

make like a cup and handle shape. And

that's going to be nice. So we look at the

gold futures and you can see it's like

accumulating at the $2,000 zone. Let me

just move the gold futures window. So at

this level. There's like a psychological

level of $2,000 on gold spot price which

it doesn't seem to be able to break

through. We've had many attempts— 1, 2,

3— and then it's just like accumulating

here right at or below or around $2,000

spot price, and it's trying to break

through it. And I think to break through

it, we'll have to pull back a little bit

to regather some strength here to finally

blast straight through that $2,000, and

then $2,000 would then become the new

support line. And after that, hopefully

for the next few years, it will never

break or fall below that 2000

psychological line again for a while. And

gold commodities and metals and mining

stocks will go on a massive bull run.

That's the theory anyway. Now the main

problem gold has is that the DXY, or the

Dollar Strength Index, it's still looking

pretty strong. The dollar is still pretty

strong, and it seems like it wants to gap

fill back up to around this level. Which

is not going to be great for gold because

if the dollar is strong, that usually

means gold is not doing well. But it's a

good hedge against the dollar strength if

you feel like the dollar is going to

weaken at some point because it's just

been on this massive upwards run. It does

make sense it will eventually come down

to— maybe it will pull back down to these

moving averages and that's when gold would

really shine. But because the market seems

to be quite bullish now, especially with

the Fed pausing rates, it seems like the

SPY is going to go up for a big rally and

that could take up the dollar with it. So

it doesn't really seem like the dollar is

going to show any signs of weakness in the

super short term, but maybe going into

next year we could start seeing weakness

in the dollar, and that's when gold could

make its really big move. We just have to

be patient until then. So yeah, things are

looking pretty green after the FOMC

meeting, and I'm thinking if this week

closes with the green without like a big

pullback or a big crash into Friday as the

week closes I'm thinking next Monday it

would be quite safe to go for a long and

expect that the chances of a pullback and

the SPY actually dropping down to that

lower level, down to like 380, is probably

not likely to happen anymore. And we're

looking at a pretty strong bullish upwards

move, and you should feel quite confident

in placing some longs in things like

Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, or just go for

the indices, the ETFs, the SPY indices or

NASDAQ if you want to take advantage and

benefit from the upwards move that will go

into Christmas. Now is probably the best

buying zone, buying opportunity you'll

have for the rest of this year for the

upwards move that could be coming soon.

So thanks for watching and goodbye.