Recording summary · November 2023
Fed PAUSES Rate Hikes - MASSIVE rally coming？! Stock Market Analysis
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Overview
Following the FOMC interest rate pause, a rally in the SPY is projected into Christmas ahead of an early 2024 sell-off driven by unpriced recession impacts, with technical support holding at the 150 moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement despite potential downside risk to 380.
Daniel established an open long position in Tesla with an investment of roughly £1,000 toward an intended $2,000 to $3,000 allocation, discounting reports of EV demand declines and identifying potential cup and handle structures targeting previous highs.
Barrick Gold constitutes 60% of Daniel's portfolio, with technical apex wedge and inverse head and shoulders patterns supported by Middle East conflict risks indicating an eventual breakout above $2,000 once anticipated US dollar weakening occurs in the coming year.
Themes
FOMC interest rate decisions and broader macroeconomic expectations.
Technical analysis, buying opportunities, and profit-taking exit strategies for the SPY, NASDAQ, and major equities including Tesla, Apple, and Microsoft.
Tesla stock technical formations, position sizing, and demand narratives.
Gold, commodity markets, US Dollar Index fluctuations, and geopolitical risks from Middle East conflict.
Developments
The FOMC paused interest rate hikes yesterday.
Daniel opened a long position in Tesla with an initial investment of approximately £1,000.
Uncertainties & gaps
Technical bullish indicators for the SPY might fail, causing the market to drop to around 380 rather than rallying.
The SPY achieving new all-time highs before the end of the year is considered unlikely.
Gold spot prices have repeatedly struggled to break above the psychological $2,000 barrier and may require a pullback before attempting another breakout.
The timing of whether an upward market move will materialize soon remains uncertain.