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Recording

DO NOT buy Tesla Stock - Tesla bubble about to POP

2021-02-07 · 11 min

internet_archive
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Wording, speaker labels, and timestamps can still be wrong. A transcript does not establish that statements in the recording are factual. Use the source links and surrounding context.

Source information & transcript revisions

Transcript revisions

  1. rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4Machine-generated and unreviewed; may be wrong; not a verified quotation.
    enraw_asractive208 segments

Transcript

en
  1. Hello and welcome back to a new

    Segment details0:01–0:02 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_0
  2. investments video. And this is a video

    Segment details0:03–0:04 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_1
  3. talking about Tesla stock and why you

    Segment details0:05–0:07 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_2
  4. should not be buying any more Tesla stock.

    Segment details0:07–0:09 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_3
  5. There's a lot of people, crazy people in

    Segment details0:10–0:12 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_4
  6. my opinion, who have been selling off all

    Segment details0:12–0:14 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_5
  7. of their shares and they're just going all

    Segment details0:15–0:16 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_6
  8. in on Tesla, which is just absolutely

    Segment details0:16–0:19 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_7
  9. crazy, insane to me. I don't understand

    Segment details0:19–0:21 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_8
  10. why they think Tesla is fairly valued at

    Segment details0:21–0:24 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_9
  11. this level. I would just say this is my

    Segment details0:24–0:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_10
  12. opinion, obviously. I mean, who else's

    Segment details0:26–0:28 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_11
  13. opinion is it? But do not get any more

    Segment details0:29–0:31 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_12
  14. Tesla stock. If you wanted Tesla, you

    Segment details0:31–0:33 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_13
  15. should have bought it last year before it

    Segment details0:34–0:35 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_14
  16. was included in the S&P 500. Back when it

    Segment details0:35–0:38 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_15
  17. was below $400 would have been a good time

    Segment details0:38–0:41 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_16
  18. to buy Tesla. Right now Tesla is sitting

    Segment details0:41–0:43 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_17
  19. at $860+ for one share.

    Segment details0:43–0:47 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_18
  20. That is just grossly, disgustingly

    Segment details0:47–0:50 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_19
  21. overpriced for what Tesla is at this very

    Segment details0:50–0:53 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_20
  22. moment. Now, no offense to Elon Musk. I

    Segment details0:53–0:56 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_21
  23. think he's a great guy. He's a funny guy.

    Segment details0:57–0:59 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_22
  24. He's obviously very clever, and I fully

    Segment details0:59–1:01 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_23
  25. support the products that he makes. His

    Segment details1:01–1:04 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_24
  26. vision. I think electric vehicles, the

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  27. Tesla car, is really cool. I wish I had

    Segment details1:06–1:07 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_26
  28. one. And the whole SpaceX thing,

    Segment details1:07–1:10 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_27
  29. launching satellites and rockets in space,

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  30. trying to get to Mars, that's all really

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  31. cool. As a fan of Star Wars and Star Trek,

    Segment details1:14–1:16 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_30
  32. I love all that sci-fi futuristic

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  33. technological mumbo-jumbo stuff. But as an

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  34. investor trying to make money on the stock

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  35. market, I just cannot recommend Tesla

    Segment details1:23–1:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_34
  36. stock. Now keep in mind, I'm not a

    Segment details1:27–1:28 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_35
  37. financial advisor. This is for

    Segment details1:28–1:30 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_36
  38. entertainment purposes only, and do your

    Segment details1:30–1:31 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_37
  39. own research. But I would say that buying

    Segment details1:32–1:34 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_38
  40. Tesla stock right now is a big mistake.

    Segment details1:34–1:37 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_39
  41. Now, the problem with the current

    Segment details1:38–1:40 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_40
  42. valuation of Tesla stock is that, well,

    Segment details1:40–1:43 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_41
  43. people are just kind of assuming that

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  44. Tesla is going to be this amazing company

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  45. in the future and they're going to make so

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  46. much money and Tesla cars are going to be

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  47. huge and mainstream. Basically, all of the

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  48. valuation is priced into Tesla stock based

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  49. off of future predictions, assumptions,

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  50. and presumptions. Now, it's great to

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  51. assume things and look into the future and

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  52. say, well, I think This company is going

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  53. to do this, and this product they're

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  54. making is going to do great. You know,

    Segment details2:10–2:11 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_53
  55. that's all well and good to make

    Segment details2:11–2:13 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_54
  56. estimations and valuations based off of

    Segment details2:13–2:16 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_55
  57. future predictions and come up with all of

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  58. this, you know, predictions of what's

    Segment details2:19–2:21 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_57
  59. going to happen in future. But the honest

    Segment details2:21–2:22 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_58
  60. truth is no one knows what's going to

    Segment details2:23–2:24 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_59
  61. happen in the future. No one truly knows

    Segment details2:25–2:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_60
  62. what's really going to happen. All of

    Segment details2:27–2:29 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_61
  63. these earnings haven't actually been

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  64. realized for Tesla yet. I don't think they

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  65. even make a profit yet. I think they've

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  66. only just recently started making a

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  67. profit. But up until recently. They've

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  68. just been making loss after loss after

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  69. loss. And I guess people are very

    Segment details2:42–2:43 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_68
  70. optimistic about the company. Obviously,

    Segment details2:43–2:46 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_69
  71. that's why the stock is priced so high.

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  72. But all of these future predictions are

    Segment details2:48–2:51 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_71
  73. already priced into the stock. All of the

    Segment details2:51–2:54 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_72
  74. good news, all of the amazing estimated

    Segment details2:54–2:57 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_73
  75. profits are already priced in. That's why

    Segment details2:57–2:59 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_74
  76. we have this $860 price mark.

    Segment details2:59–3:02 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_75
  77. But what if, what if it

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  78. doesn't do that well? What if they don't

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  79. make that much money? What if they don't

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  80. do as well as everyone is expecting them

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  81. to do? What if they slightly just miss the

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  82. estimation marks by 0.5%? Well, then

    Segment details3:14–3:17 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_81
  83. people are going to be extremely

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  84. disappointed and they're going to start

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  85. selling their Tesla stock. And then the

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  86. Tesla stock is just going to drop and drop

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  87. and drop and you're going to lose your

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  88. money. And it could take years until you

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  89. get that money back. I'm talking years.

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  90. The plus side is, you know, on the bright

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  91. side of things, even if, even if Tesla

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  92. does really well and smashes all of its

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  93. revenue estimations and makes huge amounts

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  94. of profits, well, the stock price isn't

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  95. really going to go up much because it's

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  96. already priced in. People have already

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  97. just jumped the gun and decided for

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  98. themselves that, yeah, Tesla is going to

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  99. smash all of the estimations, they're

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  100. going to make huge earnings, and they've

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  101. already priced it into the stock. So on

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  102. the plus side, they could make huge

    Segment details4:01–4:04 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_101
  103. profits and that's great. But the stock

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  104. isn't really going to go up by much

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  105. anymore because it's already priced in.

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  106. And then on the downside is what if they

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  107. miss their estimations? What if Tesla

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  108. doesn't sell as many cars as people think

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  109. they will? Well, the price of the stock is

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  110. just going to drop. And then people who

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  111. have bought in at $700 or $800 or even

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  112. $900 when it gets to $900, which it

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  113. probably will in the next few weeks, if

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  114. people are buying in at $900,

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  115. Pfft, I'm just— I don't know what to say.

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  116. You must have so much faith in Tesla that

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  117. you're buying all this stock at $900.

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  118. That's just a really bad idea. It's like

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  119. buying GameStop stock when it was at $300,

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  120. which I never did. That would just be

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  121. stupid. Now I think a lot of reason— a lot

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  122. of the reason why there's so much hype in

    Segment details4:53–4:55 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_121
  123. Tesla stock is mainly because of Elon

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  124. Musk. You know, most of these vehicle car

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  125. companies like Ford, Toyota, Mazda,

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  126. Renault. They're huge companies and they

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  127. make huge amounts of money, but I'm pretty

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  128. sure the average person doesn't even know

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  129. who the CEO of Ford is. I don't even know

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  130. who the CEO of Toyota or Ford or General

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  131. Motors is, and I'm a professional stock

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  132. trader on the stock market. The thing is

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  133. with Elon Musk is he's very charismatic.

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  134. He's like this massive meme at this point.

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  135. He pretty much is the human embodiment of

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  136. an internet meme. He's like the Tony Stark

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  137. of real life. Everyone knows who Elon Musk

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  138. is. He's been in all these movies and

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  139. shows like The Big Bang Theory. He's even

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  140. been in the Iron Man movies. He's on TV

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  141. all the time. He's huge on Twitter.

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  142. Everyone knows who he is, and he's

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  143. basically the person, the persona, who is

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  144. driving the hype for Tesla. If he— fingers

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  145. crossed that this doesn't happen, you

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  146. know, touch wood. Knock on wood that this

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  147. doesn't happen. But what if he has a fatal

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  148. accident and he's no longer with us

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  149. anymore? What's going to happen to Tesla?

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  150. Yeah, they're still going to be great and

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  151. they're going to make loads of profits,

    Segment details6:05–6:06 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_150
  152. and he's probably got loads of ideas

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  153. backed up for them for the next decade or

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  154. 2 that they could use. You know, like

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  155. Steve Jobs, when he passed away, Apple

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  156. didn't go down the toilet, but then it

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  157. kind of lost some of its— what's the word?

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  158. I don't know. Apple just isn't the same

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  159. with Tim Cook at the head. Even though Tim

    Segment details6:24–6:27 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_158
  160. Cook's doing a great job and iPhone is

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  161. still great and that, it's just not, it's

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  162. not as revolutionary or epic as it was

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  163. when Steve Jobs was at the head. And I

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  164. think the same thing would be the same if

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  165. the same thing happened to Elon Musk. I

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  166. still think Elon Musk is one of the

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  167. reasons why Tesla is so hugely popular.

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  168. It's the guy's charismatic persona behind

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  169. it. And this is another problem. He tweets

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  170. a lot of weird stuff. If you follow him on

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  171. Twitter, he's always tweeting really

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  172. strange stuff, and he's even gotten in

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  173. trouble before for what he's tweeted.

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  174. He's tweeted some weird stuff about Tesla,

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  175. which actually caused the cost— the price

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  176. value of Tesla stock to plummet because of

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  177. his poorly chosen words. And he's kind of

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  178. like a loose cannon. He's not really your

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  179. stereotypical CEO who just keeps his mouth

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  180. shut and he's all professional. He likes

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  181. to joke, he likes to troll, he likes to

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  182. partake in the memes himself. And this

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  183. could be a good thing, like when he

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  184. tweeted out the Gamestonk tweets that

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  185. drove GameStop prices up even higher. But

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  186. it also has a negative effect when he says

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  187. things that maybe shareholders would

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  188. prefer him not to be saying. So that's

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  189. my thesis on why maybe you shouldn't be

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  190. buying any more any more Tesla stock for

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  191. the short term. Maybe wait until it does a

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  192. pullback, or maybe until it drops down

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  193. back to $700. I think buying it in the

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  194. $800 or the $900 range is a little bit

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  195. risky. People are saying it's going to go

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  196. to $1,000 or $2,000 or $3,000, and maybe

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  197. it will, or maybe it won't, and it's going

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  198. to drop back down to a reasonably fair

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  199. valuation, which I think should be around

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  200. $400. I mean, $800 for

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  201. one share of Tesla just seems a little bit

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  202. excessive. I think it's way overvalued as

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  203. of right now, and I won't be buying any

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  204. Tesla stock in the near-term, short-term

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  205. future just because I think it's just way

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  206. too expensive and overpriced. If it drops

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  207. back down to $400, I would load the boat,

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  208. but no, $800, just way too expensive for

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