Recording
DO NOT buy Tesla Stock - Tesla bubble about to POP
2021-02-07 · 11 min
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- rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4Machine-generated and unreviewed; may be wrong; not a verified quotation.enraw_asractive208 segments
Transcript
Hello and welcome back to a new
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0:01–0:02 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_0investments video. And this is a video
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0:03–0:04 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_1talking about Tesla stock and why you
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0:05–0:07 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_2should not be buying any more Tesla stock.
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0:07–0:09 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_3There's a lot of people, crazy people in
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0:10–0:12 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_4my opinion, who have been selling off all
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0:12–0:14 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_5of their shares and they're just going all
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0:15–0:16 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_6in on Tesla, which is just absolutely
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0:16–0:19 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_7crazy, insane to me. I don't understand
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0:19–0:21 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_8why they think Tesla is fairly valued at
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0:21–0:24 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_9this level. I would just say this is my
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0:24–0:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_10opinion, obviously. I mean, who else's
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0:26–0:28 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_11opinion is it? But do not get any more
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0:29–0:31 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_12Tesla stock. If you wanted Tesla, you
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0:31–0:33 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_13should have bought it last year before it
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0:34–0:35 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_14was included in the S&P 500. Back when it
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0:35–0:38 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_15was below $400 would have been a good time
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0:38–0:41 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_16to buy Tesla. Right now Tesla is sitting
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0:41–0:43 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_17at $860+ for one share.
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0:43–0:47 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_18That is just grossly, disgustingly
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0:47–0:50 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_19overpriced for what Tesla is at this very
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0:50–0:53 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_20moment. Now, no offense to Elon Musk. I
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0:53–0:56 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_21think he's a great guy. He's a funny guy.
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0:57–0:59 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_22He's obviously very clever, and I fully
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0:59–1:01 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_23support the products that he makes. His
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1:01–1:04 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_24vision. I think electric vehicles, the
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1:04–1:05 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_25Tesla car, is really cool. I wish I had
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1:06–1:07 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_26one. And the whole SpaceX thing,
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1:07–1:10 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_27launching satellites and rockets in space,
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1:10–1:12 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_28trying to get to Mars, that's all really
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1:12–1:14 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_29cool. As a fan of Star Wars and Star Trek,
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1:14–1:16 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_30I love all that sci-fi futuristic
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1:16–1:19 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_31technological mumbo-jumbo stuff. But as an
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1:19–1:21 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_32investor trying to make money on the stock
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1:22–1:23 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_33market, I just cannot recommend Tesla
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1:23–1:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_34stock. Now keep in mind, I'm not a
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1:27–1:28 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_35financial advisor. This is for
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1:28–1:30 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_36entertainment purposes only, and do your
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1:30–1:31 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_37own research. But I would say that buying
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1:32–1:34 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_38Tesla stock right now is a big mistake.
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1:34–1:37 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_39Now, the problem with the current
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1:38–1:40 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_40valuation of Tesla stock is that, well,
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1:40–1:43 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_41people are just kind of assuming that
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1:43–1:45 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_42Tesla is going to be this amazing company
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1:45–1:48 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_43in the future and they're going to make so
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1:48–1:49 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_44much money and Tesla cars are going to be
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1:50–1:52 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_45huge and mainstream. Basically, all of the
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1:52–1:55 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_46valuation is priced into Tesla stock based
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1:56–1:58 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_47off of future predictions, assumptions,
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1:59–2:01 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_48and presumptions. Now, it's great to
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2:02–2:04 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_49assume things and look into the future and
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2:04–2:06 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_50say, well, I think This company is going
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2:06–2:08 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_51to do this, and this product they're
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2:08–2:09 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_52making is going to do great. You know,
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2:10–2:11 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_53that's all well and good to make
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2:11–2:13 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_54estimations and valuations based off of
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2:13–2:16 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_55future predictions and come up with all of
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2:16–2:18 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_56this, you know, predictions of what's
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2:19–2:21 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_57going to happen in future. But the honest
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2:21–2:22 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_58truth is no one knows what's going to
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2:23–2:24 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_59happen in the future. No one truly knows
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2:25–2:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_60what's really going to happen. All of
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2:27–2:29 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_61these earnings haven't actually been
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2:30–2:31 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_62realized for Tesla yet. I don't think they
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2:31–2:34 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_63even make a profit yet. I think they've
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2:34–2:35 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_64only just recently started making a
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2:35–2:37 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_65profit. But up until recently. They've
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2:38–2:39 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_66just been making loss after loss after
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2:39–2:41 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_67loss. And I guess people are very
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2:42–2:43 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_68optimistic about the company. Obviously,
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2:43–2:46 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_69that's why the stock is priced so high.
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2:46–2:48 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_70But all of these future predictions are
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2:48–2:51 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_71already priced into the stock. All of the
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2:51–2:54 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_72good news, all of the amazing estimated
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2:54–2:57 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_73profits are already priced in. That's why
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2:57–2:59 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_74we have this $860 price mark.
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2:59–3:02 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_75But what if, what if it
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3:02–3:06 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_76doesn't do that well? What if they don't
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3:06–3:07 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_77make that much money? What if they don't
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3:08–3:09 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_78do as well as everyone is expecting them
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3:10–3:11 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_79to do? What if they slightly just miss the
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3:11–3:14 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_80estimation marks by 0.5%? Well, then
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3:14–3:17 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_81people are going to be extremely
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3:18–3:19 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_82disappointed and they're going to start
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3:19–3:21 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_83selling their Tesla stock. And then the
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3:21–3:23 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_84Tesla stock is just going to drop and drop
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3:23–3:25 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_85and drop and you're going to lose your
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3:25–3:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_86money. And it could take years until you
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3:27–3:30 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_87get that money back. I'm talking years.
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3:30–3:32 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_88The plus side is, you know, on the bright
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3:33–3:35 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_89side of things, even if, even if Tesla
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3:35–3:39 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_90does really well and smashes all of its
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3:40–3:41 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_91revenue estimations and makes huge amounts
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3:42–3:45 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_92of profits, well, the stock price isn't
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3:45–3:47 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_93really going to go up much because it's
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3:47–3:48 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_94already priced in. People have already
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3:48–3:51 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_95just jumped the gun and decided for
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3:51–3:53 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_96themselves that, yeah, Tesla is going to
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3:54–3:54 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_97smash all of the estimations, they're
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3:55–3:56 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_98going to make huge earnings, and they've
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3:57–3:58 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_99already priced it into the stock. So on
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3:58–4:01 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_100the plus side, they could make huge
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4:01–4:04 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_101profits and that's great. But the stock
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4:04–4:07 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_102isn't really going to go up by much
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4:07–4:08 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_103anymore because it's already priced in.
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4:08–4:10 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_104And then on the downside is what if they
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4:11–4:12 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_105miss their estimations? What if Tesla
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4:12–4:15 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_106doesn't sell as many cars as people think
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4:15–4:16 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_107they will? Well, the price of the stock is
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4:16–4:19 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_108just going to drop. And then people who
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4:19–4:20 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_109have bought in at $700 or $800 or even
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4:21–4:24 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_110$900 when it gets to $900, which it
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4:24–4:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_111probably will in the next few weeks, if
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4:27–4:28 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_112people are buying in at $900,
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4:28–4:30 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_113Pfft, I'm just— I don't know what to say.
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4:31–4:35 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_114You must have so much faith in Tesla that
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4:35–4:37 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_115you're buying all this stock at $900.
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4:38–4:39 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_116That's just a really bad idea. It's like
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4:39–4:43 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_117buying GameStop stock when it was at $300,
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4:43–4:46 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_118which I never did. That would just be
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4:47–4:49 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_119stupid. Now I think a lot of reason— a lot
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4:49–4:53 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_120of the reason why there's so much hype in
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4:53–4:55 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_121Tesla stock is mainly because of Elon
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4:55–4:57 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_122Musk. You know, most of these vehicle car
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4:57–5:00 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_123companies like Ford, Toyota, Mazda,
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5:00–5:03 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_124Renault. They're huge companies and they
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5:03–5:05 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_125make huge amounts of money, but I'm pretty
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5:05–5:07 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_126sure the average person doesn't even know
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5:07–5:09 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_127who the CEO of Ford is. I don't even know
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5:09–5:12 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_128who the CEO of Toyota or Ford or General
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5:12–5:15 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_129Motors is, and I'm a professional stock
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5:15–5:18 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_130trader on the stock market. The thing is
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5:18–5:21 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_131with Elon Musk is he's very charismatic.
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5:21–5:24 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_132He's like this massive meme at this point.
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5:24–5:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_133He pretty much is the human embodiment of
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5:26–5:29 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_134an internet meme. He's like the Tony Stark
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5:29–5:31 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_135of real life. Everyone knows who Elon Musk
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5:31–5:34 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_136is. He's been in all these movies and
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5:34–5:35 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_137shows like The Big Bang Theory. He's even
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5:36–5:37 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_138been in the Iron Man movies. He's on TV
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5:38–5:40 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_139all the time. He's huge on Twitter.
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5:41–5:42 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_140Everyone knows who he is, and he's
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5:43–5:44 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_141basically the person, the persona, who is
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5:45–5:47 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_142driving the hype for Tesla. If he— fingers
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5:47–5:52 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_143crossed that this doesn't happen, you
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5:52–5:53 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_144know, touch wood. Knock on wood that this
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5:54–5:56 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_145doesn't happen. But what if he has a fatal
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5:56–6:00 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_146accident and he's no longer with us
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6:00–6:02 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_147anymore? What's going to happen to Tesla?
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6:02–6:03 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_148Yeah, they're still going to be great and
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6:03–6:04 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_149they're going to make loads of profits,
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6:05–6:06 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_150and he's probably got loads of ideas
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6:06–6:07 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_151backed up for them for the next decade or
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6:08–6:10 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_1522 that they could use. You know, like
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6:11–6:12 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_153Steve Jobs, when he passed away, Apple
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6:13–6:15 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_154didn't go down the toilet, but then it
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6:15–6:17 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_155kind of lost some of its— what's the word?
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6:17–6:20 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_156I don't know. Apple just isn't the same
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6:21–6:24 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_157with Tim Cook at the head. Even though Tim
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6:24–6:27 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_158Cook's doing a great job and iPhone is
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6:27–6:29 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_159still great and that, it's just not, it's
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6:29–6:30 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_160not as revolutionary or epic as it was
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6:31–6:33 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_161when Steve Jobs was at the head. And I
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6:33–6:35 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_162think the same thing would be the same if
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6:35–6:37 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_163the same thing happened to Elon Musk. I
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6:38–6:39 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_164still think Elon Musk is one of the
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6:40–6:42 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_165reasons why Tesla is so hugely popular.
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6:42–6:44 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_166It's the guy's charismatic persona behind
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6:44–6:47 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_167it. And this is another problem. He tweets
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6:48–6:51 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_168a lot of weird stuff. If you follow him on
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6:51–6:53 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_169Twitter, he's always tweeting really
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6:53–6:55 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_170strange stuff, and he's even gotten in
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6:55–6:57 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_171trouble before for what he's tweeted.
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6:57–6:58 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_172He's tweeted some weird stuff about Tesla,
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6:58–7:01 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_173which actually caused the cost— the price
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7:01–7:03 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_174value of Tesla stock to plummet because of
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7:04–7:07 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_175his poorly chosen words. And he's kind of
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7:07–7:10 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_176like a loose cannon. He's not really your
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7:10–7:12 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_177stereotypical CEO who just keeps his mouth
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7:13–7:14 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_178shut and he's all professional. He likes
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7:14–7:17 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_179to joke, he likes to troll, he likes to
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7:17–7:19 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_180partake in the memes himself. And this
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7:20–7:22 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_181could be a good thing, like when he
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7:22–7:24 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_182tweeted out the Gamestonk tweets that
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7:24–7:27 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_183drove GameStop prices up even higher. But
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7:27–7:29 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_184it also has a negative effect when he says
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7:30–7:32 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_185things that maybe shareholders would
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7:32–7:35 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_186prefer him not to be saying. So that's
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7:35–7:39 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_187my thesis on why maybe you shouldn't be
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7:39–7:42 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_188buying any more any more Tesla stock for
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7:42–7:44 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_189the short term. Maybe wait until it does a
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7:44–7:46 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_190pullback, or maybe until it drops down
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7:47–7:48 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_191back to $700. I think buying it in the
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7:48–7:50 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_192$800 or the $900 range is a little bit
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7:51–7:54 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_193risky. People are saying it's going to go
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7:54–7:56 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_194to $1,000 or $2,000 or $3,000, and maybe
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7:56–7:59 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_195it will, or maybe it won't, and it's going
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7:59–8:02 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_196to drop back down to a reasonably fair
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8:02–8:05 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_197valuation, which I think should be around
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8:06–8:09 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_198$400. I mean, $800 for
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8:09–8:13 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_199one share of Tesla just seems a little bit
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8:13–8:15 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_200excessive. I think it's way overvalued as
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8:15–8:18 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_201of right now, and I won't be buying any
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8:18–8:20 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_202Tesla stock in the near-term, short-term
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8:21–8:24 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_203future just because I think it's just way
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8:24–8:26 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_204too expensive and overpriced. If it drops
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8:27–8:29 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_205back down to $400, I would load the boat,
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8:29–8:31 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_206but no, $800, just way too expensive for
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8:31–8:35 · rev_0a127cd6def88ee447435e0af91987d4_207