Kick Livestreams/hi 2025-09-24 03_32 [bf28f48c-hi] 480p

weakness for the retest of 177.75 is the next major level. 140 is being offered on those contracts now on the ask if you didn't get a first initial fill on low of day test. Microsoft, what else is going on with Softie?

Not— Microsoft's in a tough spot. I don't really think that this is a reasonable chart to be overly aggressive on. Look at this price action. What do you see in here? Nothing. There's nothing there. There's really nothing there on softy. Apple, mild consolidation up here in the highs. I don't really think that there's much to do on

Apple in that sense. I think that you just want to let this be in here. If the brigade bolts underneath, fine, pullbacks emerge. If we get something that does this, maybe it gets in gear up and over the highs. We're just not there yet. Let's go on over to Nancy and see what's going on with Amazon. Big

breakdown, as we were saying earlier, kind of out of nowhere on the daily chart. What I would really prefer out of Amazon now is if this could kind of reconfigure itself and offer new setups. I would like to see a rally rejection underneath sort of the origin of the acceleration, which is here, this prior low, $226.45. To

be kind of an interesting retracement lower high. If we were to get that, then— geez, losing my voice here— then I would, uh, I would watch it, right, for a potential short. 226.45. You're really not getting any major lift through the intraday today. So for that, I would sort of think that— hang on a second, I don't

want to let this go.

Um, that's it.

Okay, good. Sorry, just sending a quick note.

Um, if anyone's been following along with this Palantir— uh, sorry, not Palantir, Nvidia trade— really don't want to see the contracts back below $130 on this. $130 would be no bueno. So trail stop there if you've been following along. If not, no worries. What else do we have? Google. Google, we have rolling over sort of towards the

all-time highs, just a little bit of a drift happening over here. So I don't think it's overly bearish. I think it's more consolidative than anything else. If you look at the hourly chart, maybe a little bit of head and shoulders starting to emerge, right? Something that looks like this. If you crack these lows, that could be a

little interesting, but where are you? You're still just inside of this balance, right? So generally I would think that, uh, Google's on ice until now. Black Dread Scotland, $199. Can we take a look at IBM? We'll take a look in just a minute once we rip through the core list. Uh, Powell's done speaking. Someone asked if Powell's

back on again. Powell is one and done. I'm hungry at 12:30. So other things happening here, metaverse, really nice lower high. I'm a little disappointed actually Oh, my back.

Oh God, that football session really busted my body up.

Looks all twisted.

Why you twisted your back?

How do I not get backache?

Whoa, it's tanking open here. If you look at the 2-minute chart, look at this, a little underneath this inverted hammer low, targeting continuation, stop here. Beautiful. That would have been an easy money trade of the day. And then if you look at that again, 5-minute, you have inverted hammer, inverted hammer after the double top up here, which

sets an hourly lower high. So I, I gotta admit, my, my meta execution today is severely lacking, and this will have to be sort of described in the trade journal. So please be aware of, you know, always trying to get better, and that's something that I'll be doing this afternoon. Maybe you have a different setup that you

hesitated on. Anyways, let's jump into Tesla and see what we have out of Tesla, Mr. Musk and the rocket ship. You really don't have anything to do here until you're under this $429. Speak of the devil, it just got a big flash of volatility to the downside. Still looks like the NQ is just getting absolutely bludgeoned here,

uh, targeting this level though, 24,800. 24,800. Let's— oops, we don't want that, we want this. And I'm just going to say over here, uh, at

a new idea.

What is the number over on ES?

Yeah, hang tight while I just type a note for a second. There we go. Baby's still crying. Something like,

uh, okay, good. Um, where were we? We were back over on Tesla. Tesla rolling over here again. $429 is your gatekeeper. If you break $429 on Tesla, I think that you have the opportunity for some downside. If it doesn't, then— look at how hot and heavy it's coming in here. Tesla could be interesting. Watch this $429. I

wouldn't be short into $429, but if this resolves lower, that's where I think you get the short. Acceptance below $429 could get interesting here on TESY. Okay, $429 key level. Let's jump into JPM. Financials rolling over a little bit here. Uh, I think that this is still in A-okay territory, not really much of an issue there. Uh,

Palantir. Palantir, if it wants to dip its toe all the way back down into this zone, could get interesting. Have to monitor for buyers to actually step up. Go back to Nvidia here for a second. Okay, okay, Nvidia. Let me use this Contra. Oh Jesus, I've been too busy talking to you.

All right, let's say roll off at 165. All

right,

good. Nvidia, what a— I mean, not for nothing, but what a nice little trade here. Beautiful little afternoon trade.

Very rare, very Very rare for me. This is actually starting to look like volume capitulation as well in the 5-minute. Look at the uptick in volume here. If I just open this up for a second—

he slept all day.

Yeah,

current bar is starting to exhaust a little bit. Previous bar starting to exhaust a little bit. Let's go to the 5.

Yeah, I'm going off here. Down to 1. Down to 1 at 170.

Good thing I didn't take that trade. Look at it.

Didn't bounce at all. Starting to look a little bit like a volume exhaustion. It didn't bounce there or off this trend line. Any signs of weakness, probably going to close them or the single left. And

tight and tight and tight.

Watching for another little puke here.

Come on, come on, make me some lunch money on this runner.

Make me some lunch money on this runner. Is he actually in this raid, or if he's just pretending? $2. I'm gonna set a resting order at $2 if anyone's been following along and $2 is still 20 cents away. That's kind of far, but if it pukes on a final go-around, then it'll just get tagged.

Come on, come on, do it, do it! 185s.

Starting to get a little bit of hesitation here again. I think the volume capitulation already came in. All right, I'm chilling there at 80. 180 done.

Whoa, look, it's dumping.

Whoa, good thing I didn't go along there. I would have gotten wrecked. No, I would have gone stopped out if I took that long. It's gonna get the lunch money now, isn't it? Every time. Every time. Good thing I didn't take that one.

190, 191. All right, I can't, can't play the what-if game on it. I like it. I like it. No, we were short Songs for Space. I, I was short this 5-minute inverted hammer up here. Um, so it looks like you could have made an additional 10 cents better than what I did, but, uh, for me that fits

the bill. That fits the bill. All right, uh, hypothetically, if this prints a 5-minute hammer, you've got about 3, 2 and a half minutes to go until the close. If you get a 5-minute hammer here, you could just get an oversold bounce. I wouldn't trade that long personally. I'm sort of done for the day now that this

Nvidia puke has unfolded. Um, but that is, uh, that is that. What else? Let's continue along. Where were we? We were on JP Morgan. Palantir just absolutely puking into the level. Palantir probably is more of a long. Palantir more of a long off of $177 than anything else.

Yeah, $177 Palantir needs to hold. Great spot for a potential higher low on the hourlies, so worth a go there. Broadcom has for us— it's been a junky stock recently, not gonna lie. Broadcom's been pretty rough in terms of the way it's been trading, uh, obviously falling off some quick with Nvidia, just following along with semiconductors. I

don't know if there's a great opportunity though. AMD, nice view from high of day. Wow. Unfortunately for AMD, there's just nothing to do on the hourly chart. Look at this thing, just inside of the choppy sloppy range. So I would let AMD be inside of that.

Robinhood, uh,

Underneath that previous all-time high spot. I never really broke to an aggressive new high of day, so mild on that. Don't love it. Uh, let's jump on over to our broad market here.

The spiders continue to puke. We have to reassess the opportunity now for an hourly lower high, looking for an hourly downtrend. But I think we'll just sort of end on this note. We'll probably aim to close things down here by, uh, you know, in the next 15 minutes. But you can see on the SPY, right, the next

thing that we want to watch out for is this hourly lower high. If you get the hourly lower high, right, there's your classic head and shoulders or whatnot. There's sort of the break. If you get an hourly downtrend, what does that do? Allows the opportunity for a daily higher low, which we desperately need on the daily time

frame. If you go to the daily, we've not had a higher low ever since this, right? This doesn't count, this was soft. So in my view, if this hourly downtrend does set up, we get something that looks like that on the hourly, which is a 1-hour chart. We get that, that's fine. Anything that's back down over here,

I would love to see. I would love to see it. Build out a nice— everybody's gonna freak out and say, ah, that was the market top, that's it, it's game over, right? What a great spot for a daily higher low. What an awesome spot. This is a reminder too, a little bit of one of these guys,

okay? So 20 SMA right in that spot as well, and we will continue to keep tabs on that. You got your prior days low in the S&P 500.

Um, yeah, what else can we say here? What else is worth talking about? Let's, uh, let's see if we come into the internal screen, internals dashboard, see what's going on with this. We have MU earnings after the close today. Market internals look fairly— I'm gonna say mild downside. The only reason they would look aggressive is just because

of this, uh, follow-up to Jerome Powell's that has now started to aggressively move lower. The tick has remained fairly bearish most of the mid-morning session, so I think back to myself and say, geez, why was I trying to long talents here? Anyways, index score -18 out of 30. That's, uh, definitely helping the bears here. ES on previous

day's low. NYSE breadth is still green by some miracle at 1.55. Line is just hardly negative. All up, I think that this is a mild pullback in the context of an overall uptrend. I still maintain that stance, right? I still have— there's really no change in stance here on the way that the market has continued to unfold.

I mean, let's not get crazy. What else can we say? This is just an inside candle. You have an inside candle, same size body bars, dying stacking up here, lining up here. It's simple. You break the lows, great, a little pullback develops. If you break the highs, awesome, continuation. Anything in between, consolidation, which leans into the overall

trend, which is up, right? There's been no change here. So for that reason, I do believe that markets can pull back, they can go sideways, or they can continue higher, and the uptrend will still persist regardless of of what we see here, right? Yes, there's some bearish pressure showing up at the exchange level today. It's not Armageddon.

We do not have severe volume outflows net on the session. The advance decline line is hardly scratching at negative. The index score, rightfully so, is under the zero mark. It's at -17, negative double digits. Again, warranted. But I don't think we have anything so compelling that is, oh my goodness, the market's gonna crash and burn and we

should be going to zero. I don't see the argument.

All right, what do we have on the clock? We've got 1:47 on the clock, and that's, uh, that's all in a day's work, I think. Um, what else, uh, what else do you guys want to talk about for 13 minutes? Questions, comments, concerns? TTD got the downgrade. TTD on a downgrade. Oh, we were gonna look at IBM

too, right? TTD actually had a these over the highs, right? That was over 46.25. It actually worked, worked better than Boeing, which is going to go on the no-fly list, literally. Uh, Boeing, just an absolute detriment. Here's a quick little look at Boeing. Look at this attempt to go higher out of the flag, right? If you just

do this attempted move out of the flag, a little bit of volume tried to creep in here, but just no dice over that 218. Boeing, no No-fly list. I gave it a shot, I gave it a shot. No, no luck on that one. Uh, let's go to IBM and we'll see what we have out of the business

machine. Let's go to the hourly chart. There we go.

Um, IBM needs to hold over this high, and then ultimately I think that it still continues to close the gap here. That's the primary idea, I would think, out of IBM. There was a couple of structured credit spread ideas we were kicking around. Oh my God, enough, AI Motive. You're clearly just literally AI.

Let's chill out with the spamming. AI Motive, you get one more warning and then you're a goner. You're a goner. I'm gonna do it myself. I'm gonna have the pleasure of doing it myself. Oh, Mickey did it. Um, anyhow, IBM needs to hold $266. $266, can we hold is the key question. If it does, the gap close

overhead is what you are targeting. Um, what else? There's a lot in the chat for— what else?

Hot name, hot name. Unfortunately, see this alert down here at 37? I'm just leaving it on there so every single time I look at the chart, I can— weak. Um, I never got the ping for the 37 entry down on this hammer. Would have been beautiful. But what is making up for it, at least last I looked,

was ASTS finally back over 54. Yeah, ASTS, uh, also kind of making that that move. So Rocket Lab though, let's go back over. Your next unlock on Rocket Lab, so to speak, is let this sort of saucer base break out over these highs, right? If you can get over $55 on RKLB, you're probably talking about a base

breakout, which should send it. Now what you want to see paired with this, of course, is just a decent amount of volume as the breakout actually takes place. Let's go to here, here, here, right? You want to see as this accelerates volume come into this, not really taper off. If it tapers off, then nobody's interested in buying

the breakout. It's probably a failed breakout, right? So keep an eye on your Rocket Lab volume over this high, which is roughly 55. 55, right? Jeez, did I prom— I didn't promise that I would go until— I didn't promise that I would go until 2 o'clock, did I? That's 10 more minutes.

My goodness. Um, just continuing to check back in on some of these things. ES just bouncing off of previous day's low. Again, not really enough of an issue here where I think it's, uh, let's throw our arms up and say, oh my God, it's— the market's gonna crash. Another thing to point out is from a volume style

analysis perspective, I know we didn't have volume on just a second ago, that's why we weren't talking about it, but there's still, you know, what is it 2 hours to go until the market closes, so volume can increase. We'll get market on close orders as well. But you would think if the market's selling off very aggressively— let's

go back to the internals— you would think that, oh my God, everybody's panicking, it's got to be panic at the disco, the exchange level volume flows are out. You're just not seeing it. You're not even close to the zero line. So the net volume flows on the exchange for the day, not bad, right? Not bad. So

Captain, I'm back. I gotta, uh, I gotta take my own advice here. Just say this over here.

Just typing one second.

All right, let's take the action to do what we said that we were going to do. Good,

good,

good. Nice. Um, and then let's just say

All right, all set. Thanks for bearing with me as we just made, made some appropriate notes. Let's get into what else, what else, what else, what else? We've covered everything that's, that's in our, that's in our normal lineup. I'm missing something. Yeah, no, no, I wasn't. Oh, you hear me but you don't see me. That's, uh, that's

on your computer there, Virus Complex. Uh, Coinbase. Yeah, go take a look at Coin.

Go back to a— where's the hourly?

Coinbase is in the middle of nowhere, so I hate to break it beyond Coin, but I don't see anything interesting to do on Coinbase in this range. It would have been if we could have stayed over the daily 50, if we could have stayed over this range at $337.25. I would have loved to see this as a

possible continuation of the gap close over here. It's just not playing out. It's not really a play. And now that it's back in the range there, and you know, your primary offender is just gonna be Bitcoin. If you look at Bitcoin, let's turn on the extended hours here for a second. You know, I was sort of interested

Interested in Bitcoin trying to hold this and then maybe getting a swing trade on over, you know, the neckline of the pattern. Nothing, nothing, nothing today. Just not there. Not, uh, not really making it happen. So let's go 5 minutes to get out side of the equation. A little bit of bear flag opportunity happening here. I think

Ethereum has long lower to go. Ethereum to me made more sense around $3,875.

And spot price actually is the better thing to be watching right now. So actually, as a matter of fact, let me do this. Hang tight for one second. I'm looking for TradingView charts.

All right, when I do this, is this gonna work? This might be pretty cool if this works. This would be pretty cool. Oh, there it is! That is Ethereum. That is Ethereum that you see there. Ethereum. But what I have to do is undrop it. Ethereum. Filters, edit filters.

All right, so Ethereum— I know this is cut off, I know it looks kind of funky, but, uh, Ethereum, if we just zoom out, let's go to a daily chart here. I think Ethereum has inner structure rebalanced down towards this previous pivot high right here. Let's come out with a little drawing tool. Fantastic. Look at this thing.

There you go. So if Ethereum can retest this previous high at $3,875

That's where I think there's a better opportunity for a long on Ethereum, right? So the reason that we're even talking about this in the first place is because of what we were just talking about on Coinbase. Uh, yeah, you could watch your BMNRs of the world, um, you could watch your ETHAs of the world if you want

ETFs for it. I would just be a swing trader of the spot price coin itself. Let's go back to Bitcoin, and you can see here we've been doing some chart annotation. But unfortunately, on the hourly chart, right, this is the same thing we were just looking at with the Bitcoin futures. Uh, this inverted head and shoulders happening

here— I just realized I'm covering up my little drawing tool. Let's try the built-in one. Black RAM, but let's try to just make that white real quick. There you go. There's your inverted head and shoulders. Uh, it does not look to be in play right now. You of course would have to break through the neckline, if that's

even remotely close to being something that's offered. Okay, just remove that real quick. And I think what we'll do is hide this. Let's just turn back on. Pretty incredible what this, uh, software can do. I want to— filters, edit filters— put the crop back on for Powell. That way we don't have to reset it next time around.

And just like that, there's the little box. Let's turn him off. Turn that off. Back over to Thinkorswim.

And what else was in the chat?

MSTR. We can look at MicroStrategy, which is no longer micro, it's just strategy. Let's go MSTR. And what we'll see over here is a very similar chart in terms of not having a compelling daily. If you look at the action here, let's go to more than a month. Let's go to a year. Look at the, look at

the daily action on this thing, right? You're just stuck inside of this balance point. You really want to be trading it inside of here? Probably not. Probably not. I don't see anything compelling to do on strategy underneath $337, over $320. If it's going to be a large trade that's going to unfold, you need to break underneath those

things. You really need to put the pressure on the shorts— sorry, the pressure on the longs who are trying to buy Bitcoin pullbacks, you know, sailor's leverage version thereof. That's kind of where things get aggressive, right? So 320 breakdowns on strategy are what you want. Inside this range, you don't want to do anything. You're going to get

chopped to bits. Chopped to bits.

Um, all right, what else can we say or do? Market internals still remain somewhat bearish as we come into the final 60-second stretch of my allotted time to spend with you all. Um, Nvidia, let's just give this a little bit of a reset so you can see the whole quad. Uh, Nvidia, it looks like we made the

right choice on that volume capitulation down here towards the lows. Now just kind of going sideways. Uh, Microsoft, man, generally I'm not really going to put any more trades on for the day. Actually, Nvidia was— even that was kind of a stretch, and, uh, that's the 4th trade of the day for me, which tends to be a

little bit

high. Um, JPM for a swing short?

I don't, I don't really see it as a swing short. Um, you have a maybe a pullback opportunity, but I don't really see it as a major swing short. That's where the mind makes realities. The reason I say that, right, is if we just go to a daily chart like this, I mean, what are you going to

swing it short from? $310 to this low set? You're going to swing it to these highs. Like, to me, it wouldn't make sense to have anything tighter of a stop than over this high from today's session. Look above the tail with the blue skies. I mean, I wouldn't be targeting these lows. I would be thinking that this

is a block of demand underneath you that potentially offers this if there's a pullback. So I wouldn't— I would not try to swing short JPM, um, given the current look of this chart at all.

CoreWeave. Yeah, CoreWeave was a watch this morning. Unfortunately, it never really set up, never really set up over $133. If we take this down to hourly territory, uh, you know, just kind of balanced here in the morning and then never got in here, right? It was just kind of grinding between VWAP. Take a look at these charts.

Let's go to— where's the 5? Here's the 5. Just grinding here, kind of just took it out of play. You can see I had an alert over the opening print but never triggered, never triggered here on CoreWeave. And good thing, right? I don't want to be long in here. I want to be long over prior day's high,

right? Something that, you know, consolidated and then went like this. No dice on CoreWeave. Uh, and I think that's gonna do it for today's episode of the midday Jerome Powell little roadie speech. I hope he, uh, stops by so some of the local spots, gets himself a fish and chip, and enjoys a nice Dell's lemonade on his

way out. Hopefully he can take it on the plane. I'm sure he's got some miracle plane that he's flying back here to DC. And, uh, he'll be— like he said, he'll be home just after dinner. Maybe I'll take a spin by his place, tuck him in, say good night, don't rug pull the market tomorrow, please, thank you.

And then we'll go from there. All right, I'm done. Hopefully you're okay. Going for dinner now.

Bye-bye.