Recording
How to Short the Stock Market in 2020
2020-10-09 · 9 min
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Transcript
Hello and welcome back to another
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0:00–0:02 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_0financial video on my channel. Today we're
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0:02–0:05 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_1going to be talking about how to short the
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0:06–0:08 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_2stock market. Now, what does shorting a
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0:08–0:11 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_3stock mean? Basically,
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0:11–0:13 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_4shorting a stock or short selling is a
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0:14–0:17 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_5way of trading that benefits from a
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0:17–0:20 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_6decline in the price of a company's
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0:21–0:23 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_7shares. With normal investing, you would
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0:23–0:26 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_8purchase shares that you think would have
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0:26–0:29 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_9a good outlook and it would have have good
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0:29–0:32 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_10potential for future growth. This is known
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0:32–0:35 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_11as going long. But when you short sell or
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0:36–0:39 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_12short stocks, you are really trying to do
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0:40–0:43 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_13the complete opposite to what I just said.
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0:43–0:45 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_14So basically what this means is that
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0:47–0:49 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_15people who want to do short selling,
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0:50–0:52 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_16first they look for shares or markets that
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0:52–0:55 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_17they think may be going down for a
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0:55–0:58 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_18downswing. So when you short a stock,
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0:59–1:01 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_19this can help you as a trader to hedge
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1:01–1:03 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_20against any possible negative movements in
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1:04–1:06 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_21the market. So here is my 5-point advice,
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1:06–1:11 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_22my 5 tips on how to short a stock.
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1:11–1:14 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_23Number 1, first of all, you need to choose
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1:15–1:18 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_24whether you want to invest in shares or if
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1:18–1:21 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_25you want to speculate on the price
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1:22–1:24 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_26movements Number 2, keep a close eye on
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1:24–1:28 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_27the market price to see if your guess
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1:28–1:31 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_28was the right guess. Number 3,
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1:32–1:35 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_29if the market fell just as you thought it
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1:36–1:38 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_30would, then you have to close your
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1:38–1:41 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_31position by buying back the shares that
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1:41–1:44 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_32you sold at a much lower price. Number 4,
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1:44–1:48 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_33if the market's price increased instead,
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1:48–1:51 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_34going against what you predicted, then you
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1:51–1:54 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_35should buy back the shares at a higher
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1:55–1:57 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_36price and then just pay the difference.
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1:57–1:59 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_37There are lots of different ways that you
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2:00–2:02 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_38can short sell a stock, and even though
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2:02–2:05 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_39the process and the steps to short selling
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2:05–2:08 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_40are mostly the same, at the end of the
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2:08–2:11 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_41day, it really depends on the method of
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2:11–2:14 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_42short selling that you decide to use.
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2:14–2:16 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_43Traditional short selling. So when it
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2:16–2:19 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_44comes to the traditional way of shorting
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2:19–2:21 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_45stocks, it basically involves borrow— It
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2:21–2:25 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_46involves borrowing the shares from a
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2:25–2:27 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_47person who has already bought them, and
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2:28–2:30 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_48then you sell them at the current market
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2:30–2:33 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_49price. If there is a fall in the market
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2:34–2:36 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_50price, then the investor can purchase back
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2:37–2:40 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_51the stocks at a much lower price and
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2:40–2:43 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_52profit from the change in value. This is
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2:43–2:46 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_53normally a practice that large
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2:46–2:48 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_54institutions do instead of individual
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2:48–2:52 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_55investors, but sometimes you can find a
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2:52–2:55 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_56broker that will facilitate the selling of
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2:55–2:58 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_57short selling. Short selling is a pretty
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2:59–3:02 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_58simple concept. An investor borrows a
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3:02–3:05 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_59stock, sells the stock, and then buys the
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3:05–3:07 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_60stock back to return it to the lender.
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3:08–3:10 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_61Short sellers are betting that the stock
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3:11–3:13 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_62they sell will drop in price. If the stock
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3:13–3:15 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_63does drop after selling, the short seller
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3:16–3:18 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_64buys it back at a lower price and returns
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3:18–3:20 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_65it to the lender. The difference between
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3:20–3:23 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_66the sell price and the buy price is the
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3:23–3:26 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_67profit. Short sellers are betting that a
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3:26–3:29 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_68stock will drop in price, and short
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3:29–3:32 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_69selling is riskier than going long on a
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3:32–3:34 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_70stock because there is no time limit.
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3:34–3:36 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_71There is no limit to the amount you could
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3:37–3:39 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_72lose. Speculators short sell to capitalize
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3:39–3:43 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_73on a decline, while hedgers go short to
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3:43–3:46 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_74protect gains or minimize losses. Short
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3:46–3:50 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_75selling, when it is successful, can net
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3:50–3:53 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_76the investor a nice profit in the short
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3:53–3:55 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_77term, as stocks tend to lose value faster
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3:55–3:58 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_78than they appreciate. Here is a lovely
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3:58–4:01 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_79example of a short sale.
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4:02–4:04 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_80For example, if an investor thinks Tesla
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4:06–4:09 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_81is overvalued and the price is going to
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4:09–4:12 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_82drop, the investor may borrow 10 shares
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4:12–4:15 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_83of Tesla from their broker, who then sells
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4:15–4:18 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_84it for the current market price of $600.
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4:18–4:22 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_85If the stock goes down to $400, the
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4:23–4:26 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_86investor could buy the shares back at this
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4:26–4:29 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_87price and then give the shares back to the
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4:29–4:32 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_88broker and net a profit of $1,000.
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4:33–4:37 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_89However, if the Tesla price rises to $700,
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4:38–4:41 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_90the investor would lose all of his money,
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4:42–4:44 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_91so it's very risky. So be careful if
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4:45–4:48 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_92you're gonna do this. Let's talk about the
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4:49–4:52 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_93risks of short selling. Short selling
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4:52–4:55 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_94involves amplified risk. When an investor
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4:55–4:58 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_95buys a stock or goes long, they stand to
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4:58–5:01 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_96lose only the money they have invested.
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5:01–5:03 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_97So therefore, if the investor bought 1
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5:04–5:06 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_98Tesla share at $600, The maximum
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5:07–5:10 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_99they could lose is $600 because the stock
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5:10–5:14 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_100cannot drop to less than zero. In other
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5:14–5:17 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_101words, the maximum value that any stock
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5:17–5:19 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_102can fall to is zero. However, when an
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5:19–5:23 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_103investor short sells, they can
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5:23–5:25 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_104theoretically lose an infinite amount of
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5:25–5:27 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_105money because a stock's price can keep
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5:28–5:31 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_106rising forever. As in example,
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5:31–5:34 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_107as in the example above. If an investor
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5:35–5:37 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_108had a short position in Tesla and
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5:38–5:41 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_109the price rose to $2,000 before the
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5:41–5:44 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_110investor exited, the investor would lose
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5:45–5:47 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_111$1,300 per share.
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5:47–5:50 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_112If an investor shorts a stock, there is
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5:52–5:54 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_113technically no limit to the amount they
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5:54–5:56 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_114could lose because the stock can continue
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5:56–5:59 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_115to go up in value indefinitely. In some
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6:00–6:03 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_116cases, the investor could even end up
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6:03–6:06 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_117owing their brokerage money. So why
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6:06–6:10 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_118do some investors go short? Short selling
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6:10–6:13 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_119can be used for speculation or hedging.
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6:13–6:16 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_120Speculators use short selling to
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6:16–6:19 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_121capitalize on a potential decline in a
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6:19–6:22 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_122specific security or across the market as
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6:23–6:25 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_123a whole. Hedgers use the strategy to
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6:26–6:28 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_124protect gains or mitigate losses in a
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6:29–6:32 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_125security or portfolio.
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6:32–6:34 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_126Institutional investors frequently engage
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6:35–6:38 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_127in short selling for both speculation
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6:38–6:42 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_128and hedging. Hedge funds are the most
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6:43–6:46 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_129active short sellers and often
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6:46–6:49 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_130use short selling in select stocks
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6:49–6:53 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_131or sectors to hedge their long positions
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6:53–6:56 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_132in other stocks. While short selling does
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6:56–6:59 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_133present investors with an opportunity to
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6:59–7:02 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_134make profits in a declining or neutral
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7:03–7:05 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_135market. It should only be attempted by
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7:05–7:08 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_136sophisticated investors and advanced
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7:08–7:12 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_137traders due to its risk of infinite
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7:12–7:15 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_138losses. So what is the point of short
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7:15–7:19 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_139selling? When does it make sense? Short
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7:19–7:22 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_140selling is not a strategy used by many
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7:22–7:24 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_141investors, largely because the expectation
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7:24–7:28 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_142is that the stocks will rise in value.
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7:28–7:31 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_143The stock market in the long run tends to
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7:31–7:34 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_144go up, although it certainly has its
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7:34–7:36 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_145periods when it goes down. Particularly
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7:36–7:39 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_146for investors who are looking at the long
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7:39–7:41 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_147horizon, buying stocks is less risky than
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7:41–7:44 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_148short-selling the market. Short-selling
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7:45–7:47 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_149does make sense, however, if an investor
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7:47–7:50 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_150is sure that a stock is likely to drop in
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7:50–7:53 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_151the short term. For example, if a company
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7:53–7:56 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_152is experiencing difficulties and could
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7:56–7:59 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_153miss debt repayments, So I
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7:59–8:03 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_154hope you liked my video about short
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8:03–8:05 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_155selling stocks, and if you have any
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8:06–8:08 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_156questions, feel free to ask in the
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8:08–8:10 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_157comments. And look forward to part 2 where
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8:10–8:13 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_158we'll be talking about hedging.
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8:13–8:15 · rev_879b833473b314e4155bd9837c89371f_159